Online movie downloading will still be a minority past-time, web-based TV will eventually take off and digital music downloads will balloon still further – three predictions for the state of the UK online media world circa 2011 amongst a bunch of research released by Screen Digest today (See release):
– Music: UK revenue from digital downloads will have grown from 2006’s £45 million to £285.6 by 2011, the analyst firm reckons, with listeners pulling down 191 million singles and 21 million albums per year. Will digital downloads make up the drop-off in physical sales? “The question remains”, Screen Digest says – though you would imagine a six-fold increase would certainly help.
– TV: Revenues for £181 million will be 2011, Screen Digest said. Only two operators – BT (NYSE: BT) Vision and Tiscali – provide living room IPTV services at present and have a tiny number of subscribers, but the research refers to pressure the networks will face from “virtual networks” like YouTube and Joost as well as the threat from consumer electronics outfits like Apple (NSDQ: AAPL), Microsoft (NSDQ: MSFT) and Sony (NYSE: SNE), who already have direct channels to consumers via hardware.
– Movies: Slowest growth will be in online film downloading because consumers will be reluctant to watch long movies in front of their PCs, preferring the big-screen lounge environment for a lean-back experience. Chief analyst Ben Keen: